The conclusion of the free trade agreement between the European Union and the Mercosur countries (Argentina, Brazil, Uruguay, Paraguay, Bolivia), announced by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, marks a turning point in trade relations between these two economic blocs. However, the agreement has sparked intense tensions, particularly in France, where opposition to the treaty remains strong. Can France still hope to slow its ratification ?

France has quickly positioned itself against this agreement, citing its potential repercussions on national agriculture and its environmental impact. Criticism comes from both farmers and parliamentarians across the political spectrum, who view the treaty as a threat to European food sovereignty and a setback in the fight against deforestation.

However, France’s ability to maneuver will depend on the final form of the agreement. If the deal remains strictly commercial, it can be approved by a qualified majority in the Council of the European Union, thereby limiting France’s capacity to oppose it. On the other hand, if a political component is added, involving commitments on human rights or sustainability, unanimous approval will be required. In that scenario, Paris could exercise a veto.

To maximize its chances, France is working to form a blocking minority within the Council. It could rely on skeptical partners such as Italy, Poland, and the Netherlands, which have expressed reservations about the agreement. However, convincing enough member states to block the process remains a challenge, especially since other countries, like Germany, are actively supporting the deal.

Beyond internal debates, this agreement reflects broader geopolitical stakes. If the deal is rejected, Mercosur could pivot toward China, forcing the European Union to weigh the economic, environmental, and strategic consequences of such an alliance. France, despite its opposition, will have to contend with a larger European dynamic where the interests of member states often diverge.

In the coming months, the negotiations promise to be decisive, not only for this agreement but also for Europe’s vision of global trade and sustainable development.