As part of his campaign for a second presidential term, Donald Trump has proudly reaffirmed his “America First” slogan, accompanied by a set of ambitious economic reforms aimed at strengthening the U.S. economy. A cornerstone of this program is a radical increase in tariffs on numerous imported goods, designed to promote local production and reduce the United States’ trade deficit.

By raising import taxes, Trump intends to protect domestic industries while introducing tax cuts to mitigate the impact of price increases on households. This strategy, which has the potential to disrupt global trade, has raised concerns. Indeed, the effects of such a policy are likely to extend far beyond U.S. borders, particularly impacting import-export businesses in partner countries like France.

Donald Trump has proposed increasing tariffs by 10% to 20% on most goods imported into the U.S., targeting certain countries with even higher rates. For instance, China, the U.S.’s largest trading partner, could face tariffs as high as 60% on some products. For imports from Mexico and Canada, Trump plans to sign all necessary documents on January 20 to impose a 25% tariff on all goods. Tariffs on Mexican car imports could reach as high as 200%. According to his communications on his Truth Social platform, these tariffs will remain in place until drug trafficking—particularly fentanyl—and migration into the U.S. significantly decrease.

The stated goal is to encourage companies to relocate their production to U.S. soil, thereby reducing the trade deficit and creating more local jobs. According to Trump, this policy could revitalize the U.S. manufacturing sector, currently weakened by massive offshoring to low-wage countries.

However, this strategy of “protectionist taxes” could have significant secondary economic effects. High tariffs would directly increase the selling prices of imported goods, thereby reducing the purchasing power of American consumers.

In the long run, this could impact domestic demand and lead to a contraction in GDP. Experts are also concerned about potential job losses in certain sectors, particularly among companies reliant on global supply chains. Faced with higher import costs, consumers might turn away from some products, resulting in decreased activity and job cuts.

To offset the price hikes caused by this tariff policy, Trump plans to continue reducing taxes, a move initiated during his first term. However, economists argue that these tax cuts would benefit wealthy households more than low-income families, who would remain vulnerable to rising prices.

Additionally, according to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, increasing tariffs, even when paired with tax reductions, could deepen the federal debt by nearly $15 trillion over the next decade. To prevent this debt explosion, Trump is also considering reducing public spending, which could affect social programs, penalizing the most modest households.

On the international stage, this tariff policy risks disrupting the balance of global trade and affecting exports from numerous countries, especially France. Trump’s protectionist policy would impose new taxes on a wide range of imported products, creating a challenging environment for French exporters. Already facing a 6% decline in exports to the U.S. between 2022 and 2023, French businesses could be particularly affected, notably in the aerospace, pharmaceutical, and luxury goods sectors.

While less exposed than countries like Germany, France could still see a significant reduction in exports to the U.S. This dependence of French industries on the U.S. market makes them vulnerable to tariff increases, potentially slowing their development and impacting the national economy.

In response, U.S. trading partners could consider retaliatory tariff measures. Such an escalation could amplify global economic tensions and increase uncertainty for import-export businesses, creating an unstable business environment. Regarding the U.S.’s largest trading partner, Chinese diplomacy reacted to these measures by stating, “No one wins in a trade war.” Liu Pengyu, a Chinese spokesperson, emphasized that trade and economic cooperation between the two countries are inherently mutually beneficial.

In summary, if Donald Trump follows through on these promises, his trade policies are set to reshape the economic landscape both within and beyond the United States. The consequences of his policies will not only affect Washington’s relationship with its trade partners but also create a climate of uncertainty that could reverberate across global trade.